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Prediction for CME (2026-06-19T03:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-19T03:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46923/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2. Not clearly visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S40E40 as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery with liftoff starting around 2026-06-18T21:36Z. Dimming is also seen in SDO AIA 193 imagery. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Preliminary glancing blow arrival observed at 2026-06-23T03:43Z characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components up to 10nT and minor increase in speed to ~360 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-23T03:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 2.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-22T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 450
Longitude (deg): 025E
Latitude (deg): 17S
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes: Faint CME in St A only, poss assw minor filament eruption from SE disc. Fit assumes this as approx lift-off location, any partial haloes too faint in scant imagery on C2 or CCOR. 
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 85.63 hour(s)
Difference: 9.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-06-19T14:05Z

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